Stock Market Outlook, day trading, index, market outlook, outlook, etf, technical analysis, trading

5 days delay
In order to have access to the most recent market outlook you have to become a member.

Important Note: The "Daily Market Outlook" is delivered to MarketVolume® members by Index-Day-Trading™. MarketVolume® is not responsible for any of the represented information or its delivery to the user. The technical analysis results presented in the "Daily Market Outlook" may differ from the trading signals generated for Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs Signals) or from any other research and analysis efforts shared with our members, since these products developed by independent research teams and delivered to MarketVolume® members. While sharing MarketVolume® proprietary technologies, these autonomous research teams use different systems and may have dissimilar market outlooks.

Index-Day-Trading™ is the first online service to deliver "Daily Market Outlook" with the future short-, mid- and long-term market trends based on volume technical analysis of major US indexes.

Market Stage
(11/13/2009)

In spite of yesterday's negative SBV oscillator readings (as seen on 60-day charts), the major indexes pushed higher today.

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are currently showing almost flat SBV oscillator readings, with the following values found at the end of today's session: Plus 19% on the Nasdaq 100; minus 2% on the S&P 500; plus 2% on the Dow. Flat SBV oscillator readings are indicative of market uncertainty; we will therefore continue to monitor this chart setting for more pronounced SBV signals.

On 1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV, SBV oscillator readings are advancing, which is bullish. At the same time, we are however starting to see a build-up of bullish volume. Overall, this chart setting suggests that even in the event of a correction, the odds are high we might see only a short-lived pullback within the context of a longer-term up-trend.

In summary, we see a large accumulation of bullish volume on 60-day charts which could serve to push indexes lower. In contrast, 1.5-year charts are showing a sizable accumulation of bearish volume which suggests the market may only display a mild reaction to the bullish volume seen on the 60-day charts.

Market Status
(11/13/2009)

Market Performance:
�

Last

Change

Volume

A/D Ratio

S&P 500

1,093.44

6.26 (0.58%)

2,996,112

3.69

NASDAQ 100

1,788.61

15.47 (0.87%)

680,483

3.62

DJI

10,269.79

72.85 (0.71%)

645,739

2.75

The bulls were right back in the driver's seat today after yesterday's (lone) red close. In fact, the Nasdaq 100 has now closed up on nine of November's 10 trading sessions thus far. The index gained 0.87% today and finishes the week up 3.34%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 added 0.58% today (closing the week up 2.26%), and the Dow also gained, rising 0.71% (up 2.45% for the week).

Today's volume production on the S&P 500 was 2,996 million shares which is 27% below the index's average daily volume generated over the past three months.

NASDAQ 100 - 11/13/2009. 1-day Intraday, Modulated Volume.

Volume Analysis:
9:30 - 13:30: The NASDAQ 100 opened with a seven-point gap up from Thursday's close, setting the stage for a recovery rally from yesterday's lone bearish day and paving the way for the index's ninth up-session in the last 10 trading days. In choppy - at times erratic - trading, the index worked its way up to its session peak around 12:35. The rise was characterized by a steady accumulation of bullish volume (which is seen in green on the SBV oscillator pane). The strongest buildup of bullish volume began shortly before noon, with the market eventually building today's largest bullish volume surge which peaked at 12:20. This bullish volume spike was a first warning that the bulls' powers to drive the market strongly higher were at risk of becoming spent. In fact, as you can see from a one-day chart of the index, the market topped for the session only 15 minutes later. Shortly after, the index lapsed into a very tight sideways pattern, a trading corridor with a very constricted range. Shortly before 13:30, we then saw another sizable bullish volume surge, another warning that bullish efforts were close to exhausted, and that we might soon see a downside reversal.

13:30 - 15:00: Bullish momentum was now clearly spent (as suggested by the large buildup of bullish volume discussed above) and the index turned down, shifting momentum the bears. A pullback followed, taking the index down to a higher intraday low by 15:00. This slide was associated with an increased production of bearish volume (as is indicated by the predominantly red areas appearing on the SBV oscillator pane during this time); note the bearish volume surges that peaked at approximately 14:00, 14:40, and 15:00. As more bearish volume accumulated, the bears' efforts to drive the market even lower were becoming spent, an indication that a potential upside reversal might be close at hand.

15:00 - 16:00: The session's last hour brought another bullish momentum shift; the index rose to another bullish close in the top third of its intraday range today. Volume output dwindled considerably over this last hour. A 5-day chart of the index shows that today's trading resulted in a fairly pronounced surplus of bullish volume overall.

Short Term (lasts a few hours to a few days): On Thursday, we had called for a 'temporary intraday bounce to slightly higher levels'; today's action however brought a stronger rise (mitigated by a pullback late in the session) that recovered much of yesterday's losses. We currently have the S&P 500 and the Dow at roughly the same closing levels they achieved on November 9 while the Nasdaq 100 has trended higher since that date, although it has now been more or less range-bound over the past three sessions. In other words, the market has been consolidating near 2009 highs, too strong still to correct in any meaningful way yet not quite forceful enough to simply keep powering higher at the same pace seen during the early November moon-shot.

We believe the more or less range-bound action in the market might continue for some time, with the major indexes on balance continuing to trade flat. Because today's recovery rally from yesterday's slide was however achieved at the expense of the indexes accumulating a surplus of bullish volume (notably on the Nasdaq 100; see a 5-day chart of this index), we believe there are slightly higher risks we could see a slip to modestly lower levels (as opposed to a sustainable rise to higher levels). All in all, we thus see flat to modestly lower levels on the major indexes over the short-term.

Analyst's Daily Tip:

Magnitude of a volume moving average (VMA) surge
When analyzing a VMA surge, observe not only its height, but also its width (duration). Place additional emphasis on surges that are wider than normal. For instance a wide VMA surge as price is moving down indicates prolonged buying interest. Likewise, the same principle applies (in reverse) to the analysis of VMA surges s the price is moving up.

Critical Levels:
In order to establish the optimal critical levels for the SBV indicator, a trader should consider the current market situation and review a chart history of prior volume surges including their magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached). Furthermore, it is important to look at more than one chart and to use multiple timeframes. For instance, while a volume surge may look imposing and appear to be critical on a 2-hour or a 1-day chart, the very same surge may not look nearly as significant on a 5-day chart. A prominent surge appearing on a 1-day chart could well affect index levels and bring about a one to five point reversal. In contrast, a prominent volume surge on a 5-day chart may prompt a reversal of 5 to 10 points.

Financial Press Overview:
The newest US consumer sentiment reports came out today, and they were poor, showing an unexpected tumble. In early November, consumer confidence waned, coming in at its weakest level in three months. The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers pegged its (preliminary) sentiment indicator for November at a reading of 66.0 (October's value had been a significantly higher reading of 70.6); meanwhile, economists had been expecting the latest reading to come in at 71.0. The accompanying Reuters statement suggested that '.... importantly, the decline in confidence was already in place before the announced increase in the unemployment rate to 10.2 percent on November 6'.

In housing-related news, the National Association of Realtors see home prices across the US improving in 2010, increasing by an estimated 4%. Furthermore, home resales should also keep rising in conjunction with the anticipated continuing housing market recovery. Specifically, home resales for 2010 are currently projected to reach 5.7 million while mortgage rates are estimated to average roughly 5.7%.

The major indexes recovered smartly today from yesterday's lone slide, although they pulled back strongly later in the session. The up-move was precipitated by renewed US dollar weakness (prompted by the largest increase in a decade in the US trade deficit), strong earnings from Walt Disney (which reported a rise in both quarterly profit and revenue), and better-than-expected results from a number of retailers (including J.C. Penney and Abercrombie & Fitch).

It is interesting to point out (as some skeptic market observers have) that today's rally occurred on the heels of a much worse than expected reading on consumer sentiment. Some market observers use this as yet another example of a growing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, calling the current rally nothing more than an increasingly irrational momentum trade where technical aspects (cheap money, low interest rates, a sagging US dollar) are overshadowing poor underlying fundamentals, for now continuing to provide a strong tailwind for the bulls.

Key economic data for the week starting November 16, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
	8:30 AM RETAIL SALES M/M (Oct): 0.9% / -1.5% RETAIL SALES (X-AUTOS) M/M (Oct): 0.4% / 0.5% NEW YORK FED (EMPIRE) (Nov) (M): 28.5 34.6 10:00 AM BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M (Sep): -0.6% / -1.5%

Tuesday:
	8:30 AM PPI M/M (Oct): 0.5% / -0.6% PPI M/M (core) (Oct): 0.1% / -0.1% PPI Y/Y (Oct): -1.7% / -4.8% PPI Y/Y (core) (Oct): 1.4% / 1.8% 9:00 AM NET CAPITAL INFLOWS (TICS) (Sep): n.a. / $28.6B 9:15 AM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M (Oct): 0.4% / 0.7% CAPACITY UTILIZATION (Oct) (M): 70.8% / 70.5% 1:00 PM NAHB HOUSING INDEX (Nov): 19 / 18

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM November 18 CPI M/M (Oct): 0.2% / 0.2% 7:00 AM CPI M/M (core) (Oct): 0.1% / 0.2% CPI Y/Y (Oct): -0.3% / -1.3% CPI Y/Y (core) (Oct): 1.6% / 1.5% HOUSING STARTS SAAR (Oct): 598K / 590K

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Nov-07: 5620K / 5631K 10:30 AM INITIAL CLAIMS Nov-15: 502K / 502K 10:00 AM PHILADELPHIA FED (Nov) (M): 11.6 / 11.5 LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Oct) (M): 0.4% / 1.0%

Disclaimer: The "Daily Market Outlook" is provided for education and informational purposes only - they are not intended to be and do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, strictly based on the "Daily Market Outlook". You understand and agree that you are using such information AT YOUR OWN RISK. More...

IDT - Index Day Trading

Using "Daily Market Outlook

(updated on daily basis)