11/20/2009

An absence of (stimulating) economic data releases, Dell's significant earnings miss (as we reported yesterday) - now called a 'debacle', and of course the suddenly strengthening US dollar served as a drag for the equity market today. The S&P 500 saw its first weekly loss for the month. A number of additional bearish factors came from overseas, putting further pressure on the markets: The possibility Asian policymakers might impose capital controls; the European Central Bank's hint of withdrawing liquidity (i.e., phasing out stimulus programs).

This week's most troubling economic news came from the housing front where we learned about an unexpected decline in housing starts and a significant increase in mortgage delinquencies. This has reignited concerns about the sustainability of the current economic recovery, and has investors worried, the stock market rally since March may have been overdone.

Next week should see light trading because of the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday. The week however has a loaded economic news calendar (see details in the section below) with reports scheduled on home sales, unemployment numbers, consumer confidence data, revised GDP numbers, and more.

Key economic data for the week starting November 23, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
	8:30 AM CHICAGO FED NAT.ACTIVITY INDEX (Oct): n.a. / -0.8% 10:00 AM EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR (Oct): 5.70M / 5.57M EXISTING HOME SALES M/M (Oct): 2.3% / 9.4%

Tuesday:
	8:30 AM GDP (annualized) (Q3 A): 3.0% / 3.5% GDP DEFLATOR (annualized) (Q3 A): 0.8% / 0.8% 9:00 AM S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX (Sep): n.a. / 146 S&P CASE SHILLER Y/Y (Sep): -9.2% / -11.3% 10:00 AM CONF.BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Nov): 47.0 / 47.7 RICHMOND FED MANUF. INDEX (Nov): 10.0 / 7.0 HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q/Q (Q3): n.a. / -0.7% HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M (Sep): 0.2% / -0.3% 2:00 PM FED MEETING MINUTES

Wednesday:

8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M (Oct): 0.5% / 1.4% DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M (Oct): 0.8% / 1.2% PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y (Oct): 0.1% / -0.5% PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y (core) (Oct): 1.3% / 1.3% PERSONAL INCOME M/M (Oct): 0.2% / 0.0% PERSONAL SPENDING M/M (Oct): 0.5% / -0.5% CONTINUING CLAIMS Nov-14: 5523K / 5611K INITIAL CLAIMS Nov-21: 500K / 505K 10:00 AM NEW HOME SALES SAAR Oct-26: 410K / 402K NEW HOME SALES M/M Oct-26: 2.0% / -3.6% MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Nov F): 67.0 / 66.0

Thursday:
	Markets closed

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